The geographic distribution of Birthers

[tangaroa]

There are some conspiracy theories going around that accuse U.S. President Barack Obama of not having been born in Hawaii. Despite being baseless and having been proven wrong by copies of Obama's birth announcement in archives of Hawaiian newspapers, the accusations are gaining traction in the U.S. public. A Research 2000 poll shows that the notion that Obama's citizenship is questionable has about a 10% penetration level in most of the country, but 53% in the South and 58% among Republicans, with the doubt split about evenly between those who are certain Obama is a foreigner and those who are not sure.

Let's factor race into those numbers. American blacks in general are a solid Democratic block and would be unlikely to give any credence to the conspiracy theories. Let us assume that 20% of Southerners are black; I can't find accurate numbers for the whole South, but this understates the black population of several Southern states while overstating that of Texas. Let us also assume that 80% of Southern blacks recognize Obama's citizenship, since this reflects the level of black support for the Democratic party, and that the rest break even between rejecting and not knowing. With these assumptions, we can estimate that about 60% of Southern whites don't believe Obama is a U.S. citizen.

So what's the matter with the South? The obvious answer is racism, and I feel safe assuming that the birthplace conspiracies are yet another article in a long history of white versus black racial conflict which has always run stronger in the South than in the rest of the States. That can't be the whole story, though, and the next places to look are the South's information sources. Newspapers are not doing enough of a job of calling a fib a fib, or not enough people are reading the ones that are. Radio is probably spreading the story since nearly all U.S. radio is controlled by the right wing. I would also put churches on the list of suspects since churches are more influential in the South than elsewhere and Southern churches tend more to lean to the right than churches outside the South. It must be noted that this is speculation for the time being and that a large and significant number of Southern whites don't buy into the nonsense.

How can the penetration of Birther ideas be only ten percent in most of the country and more than half of Republicans at the same time? The Republicans who are Birthers should count for more than ten percent of the general population. It could be that even Republicans outside the South are unlikely to believe the Birther ideas, or that Research 2000 underpolled Republicans outside the South. If the numbers are accurate, and assuming all Birthers are Republicans and the U.S. population is split in thirds between the two parties and independents, Birther belief among Republicans outside the South runs about half of the 58% national rate. To balance this out, Birther penetration among Southern Republicans needs to be well above the 58% national rate. I figure this number to be 148%, well over what is mathematically possible, suggesting that either Republicans were overpolled in the South and underpolled in the other areas or my math is wrong. The first possibility is worrisome as it suggests the poll's numbers undercount the penetration of Birther ideas in the general U.S. population, meaning that the Birthers are a bigger influence than it seems. The second possibility is unthinkable.

Why do people want to believe the slander against Obama? Racism, as mentioned before, is probably a contributing factor. Disputing Obama's citizenship is a way of considering Obama as a lesser person instead of as an equal or, the way too many Americans tend to view their President, as a superior. Another possible cause is in a study showing that U.S. conservatives are more likely to believe a claim after it has been declared to be debunked than when they first hear it. Partisanship and power relations are a major factor, as the Birther claims are a way of denying respect to a leading figure from the other side and they are the last thing that desperate partisans have to hold on to to continue fighting the 2008 election to keep Obama out of office.

Partisanship tends to produce amusing hypocrisy. How many of the Birthers supported the idea of Austrian-born Arnold Schwarzenegger becoming President when that prospect was floated a few years ago? How many of them raised concerns about Dick Cheney's selection as Vice President in 2000 when his being from the same state as Bush made him ineligible for the office? (Cheney got around that by moving back to Wyoming for six months.) No one did a poll on this, but I expect there to be more of the first than the second.

Comedian Bill Maher describes the Birthers as a threat. This will probably encourage them since they see that they're having an effect. I also see them as a threat. If people like the Birthers keep gaining influence in the Republican party, more sane people will be leaving the party and becoming independents but not enough of them to form a third party. The Republicans will nominate crazier and crazier people and conservatives will still vote for them because they are the only alternative to the Democrats.

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Here's my math if anyone wants to dispute it.

Calculation 1: 
Those who Accept, Deny, or are Unsure of Obama's citizenship:
 A    D    U
47   23   30  out of 100 (Total numbers for South) 
16    2    2  out of 20 (estimated Southern black population)
31   21   28  out of 80 (estimated Southern white population)
39   26   35  out of 100 (est. percentages for Southern whites)

Calculation 2:
  1/3 of population assumed to be Republicans (with 1/3 Dem, ind)
* 58% Birther penetration among Republicans
= 1/5 of population are Birther Republicans 
Since the Birther penetration rate outside the South is 1/10,
the number of Republican birthers there must be halved to match.

Calculation 3:
Assuming non-South Birther penetration rate in Republicans is
halved from 58% to 30%, and assuming equal distribtution of
Republicans in the four geographic areas:
(3 * 30% + x ) / 4 = 58%
x is 148%. 
Conclusion: Republicans underpolled outside the South.